FAIR OPkek DECISION: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to hold interest rates unchanged by March 19, as the economy shows signs of strength and inflation accelerating slightly above target levels. This decision is underpinned by data indicating economic growth momentum and sustained inflation challenges nearing 2%.
FED CHAIR J IbidPOUNDING’S POINTS: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that maintaining policy restraint is likely beneficial in the near term, despite economic growth momentum. The FOMC will discuss monetary policy cautiously, with FedGreek Adriana Kugler exploring potential rate stagnation given subdued job market trends and inflationary pressures.
ECONOMIC DATA Sinductions: Recent economic data suggest continuediciencies in the job market and accelerating inflation, though slightly elevated at 3%, making it more likely for the FOMC to hold rates higher. Fixed income markets, governed by CME FedWatch, suggest that rates may fluctuate slightly up to two cuts in 2025, but further changes may occur later.
path OF INTEREST深入人心: The FOMC may consider short-term rate cuts in 2025 if economic conditions improve, but full stabilization is uncertain until the summer. This decision hinges on U.S. job and inflation data trends moving in support of rate increases.
tariff IMPACT: Tariffs could complicate the FOMC’s decision-making process in 2025. While China’s tariffs are likely to initiate interest rates, broader trade wars or price-cost increases may trigger wider economic responses, potentially prompting rate adjustments.
整体展望: The market perceives a low chance of FOMC加息 in March due to evolving economic and inflationary signals. However, if U.S. jobs and inflation persistently cool or improve, rate cuts in 2025 may increase, particularly by the summer. Market expectations highlight a relatively stable 2025 audience, with potential rate hikes ranging from 0.25% to 1% by summer.
