Summary Overview
Credo Technology (NASDAQ:CRDO) is set to announce its first earnings report on Monday, June 2, 2025. The shares have historically shown significant volatility around earnings announcements, with a nearly equal probability of rising or falling following successful or negative earnings reports, respectively. Between the past three years, the stock has also demonstrated balanced performance, with a median one-day return of 23.2% in positive cases and a maximum positive return of 47.9%.
Earnings Promise and Performance Analysis
The company is expected to report earnings of $0.27 per share for the 2025 filing, marking a notable increase from the previous year’s $0.07 per share. Positive one-day returns for the stock have occurred in 54% of cases over the past three years, with a median return of 23.2% during positive performance periods. The stock has occasionally experienced negative returns, with max one-day returns reaching -6.4%.
Strategies for捕捉到交易机会
There are two complementary approaches to exploiting earnings announcements:
- Pre-Earnings Positioning: Assume positive performance and capitalize by buying the stock before earnings begin.
- Post-Earnings Strategy: Analyze the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns following earnings releases, adjusting your position accordingly.
Historical Returns and Post-Earnings Reaction
historical one-day (1D) returns of the stock follow a 54% positive probability across the past five years, with 7 out of 13 recorded positive returns. Median one-day returns during positive periods are 23.2%, while negatives average -6.4%. Similar patterns can be observed for longer-term periods.
Calibration and Correlation Analysis
The stock’s 1D, 5D, and 21D returns exhibit correlations that indicate potential risk-adjusted strategies. For instance, a "long" position might target the next 5 days if there is a positive 1D return. Long-term correlations can be moderate, indicating that movement in one period may precede or be influenced by others.
Peer Earnings Impact
The performance of commercial peers following earnings announcements may lag behind, affecting the stock’s reaction. Historical comparisons show thatloor refers to the 3-year window, as the data becomes less relevant in older times.
Investment Opportunities
To capitalize on earnings announcements, consider the TREFS RV ( Risk-Adjusted Return) portfolio, which has outperformed its benchmark since its inception. Additionally, theHigh Quality portfolio, which combines a mix of large-cap and mid-cap stocks, consistently delivers strong returns. These strategies aim to exploit upside potential while minimizing risk through diversification.
