The initial assessments of the Myanmar junta’s fragility following the coup have proven inaccurate. Predictions of imminent collapse were rooted more in hope than reality. Despite facing numerous challenges, the junta has demonstrated unexpected resilience, retaining control over key economic regions and the majority of the population. International support from Russia and China, both providing arms and diplomatic cover, has bolstered the regime’s position. This backing, coupled with the junta’s ability to circumvent sanctions and maintain export revenue streams, has allowed it to weather the storm. Furthermore, the junta has displayed a surprising degree of adaptability, negotiating ceasefires with opposing forces when strategically advantageous. This combination of factors has contributed to the regime’s continued survival.
While the opposition movement has achieved significant military gains, internal divisions regarding long-term objectives persist. Although united in their aim to dismantle the State Administration Council (SAC), the ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and the National Unity Government (NUG) lack a cohesive strategy beyond this shared goal. Military successes have yielded a substantial influx of weapons and ammunition, but resource scarcity remains a significant obstacle. Critically, the NUG has been unable to secure official recognition or acquire lethal aid from foreign governments, hindering their ability to mount a sustained challenge to the junta’s authority. This lack of external support weakens the opposition’s position and complicates their efforts to coordinate a unified front against the regime.
Looking ahead, predicting the trajectory of events in Myanmar in 2025 remains challenging. The nation’s history is replete with unforeseen developments, underscoring the difficulty of forecasting its future. A crucial determinant of the junta’s survival will be the continued loyalty and cohesion within the armed forces, the Tatmadaw. While internal fissures within the military are evident, the Tatmadaw has, so far, maintained discipline and largely adhered to the junta’s directives, with the exception of a relatively small number of defectors. This internal stability, despite underlying tensions, provides the junta with a critical base of support and the means to enforce its control.
However, the junta’s recent reactivation of a dormant conscription law presents a significant gamble. For decades, the Tatmadaw has meticulously shaped and controlled the ideology of its rank and file. Introducing over 20,000 potentially resentful conscripts into this carefully cultivated environment poses a substantial risk of internal dissent and even mutiny, especially given that these new recruits will be trained and armed. This move suggests a serious manpower shortage within the Tatmadaw, forcing the junta to take a risky measure that could potentially backfire and further destabilize the military.
The opposition movement, despite its successes, faces significant challenges. The lack of a cohesive post-SAC strategy, coupled with limited resources and the absence of international recognition and support, hampers their ability to effectively challenge the junta’s control. While the seizure of arms and ammunition through military victories provides a boost, the absence of a unified vision and sustainable resource streams weakens their long-term prospects. The NUG’s inability to secure international backing further isolates the opposition and limits their access to crucial resources and political legitimacy.
The junta, while displaying resilience, is not without its vulnerabilities. The conscription gamble, driven by manpower shortages, introduces an unpredictable element into the Tatmadaw’s carefully controlled ranks. This move could potentially exacerbate existing internal tensions and undermine the military’s cohesion, a key factor in the junta’s continued survival. While international support from Russia and China provides a lifeline, the junta’s dependence on these external actors also creates potential vulnerabilities. The evolving geopolitical landscape could impact the level of support the junta receives, further influencing the balance of power within Myanmar. The junta’s ability to navigate these internal and external challenges will determine its fate in the coming years.
