The terrorist threat landscape in Canada has intensified, marking a statistically significant surge in terrorism-related charges between 2007 and 2024. This increase, indicative of potentially thwarted attack plots, signals a concerning trend of escalating terrorism within the country over the past eighteen years. While religiously motivated terrorism, particularly from jihadist groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda, has historically dominated the threat picture, a diversification of motivations has emerged in recent years, with ideologically driven actors also contributing to the rising number of terrorism charges. This volatile combination of geopolitical tensions and expanding radicalization across various ideologies fuels the escalating threat level.
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) has been instrumental in disrupting several terrorist plots over the past two years, primarily targeting ISIS supporters. These disrupted plots include a planned bombing at a pro-Israel rally on Parliament Hill, a conspiracy to attack Pride Month events in Calgary, a foiled attack in Toronto involving a father and son, and the arrest of a Pakistani student in Quebec allegedly en route to the U.S. to perpetrate a mass shooting at a Jewish center. Additionally, a Toronto youth was arrested under a terrorism peace bond in December, further highlighting the ongoing efforts to mitigate potential threats. The recent New Orleans attack on New Year’s Day, perpetrated by an alleged ISIS supporter, underscores the transnational nature of terrorism and necessitates international cooperation in investigations and intelligence sharing.
The January 1st attack in New Orleans, where an alleged ISIS supporter used a truck to kill 14 people on Bourbon Street, has prompted the FBI to investigate the perpetrator’s 2023 visit to Ontario. The RCMP has appealed to Canadians for any information relevant to the FBI’s investigation, emphasizing the importance of public vigilance and cooperation in counter-terrorism efforts. A Global News investigation in November 2023 revealed a concerning link between ISIS and a growing number of cases across Canada, many involving youths, some as young as 15.
While religiously motivated terrorism remains a significant concern, analysis suggests that attacks successfully carried out within Canada are more often perpetrated by individuals with ideological or mixed motivations. Several killings have been attributed to supporters of misogynist Incel and far-right ideologies, and a gunman who attacked Edmonton City Hall left behind a manifesto referencing a range of issues, from water quality to Gaza. This diversification of motivations poses a challenge for counter-terrorism efforts, as it requires a broader approach than focusing solely on religiously motivated extremism.
Despite the rise in terrorism charges and attacks, Canadian counter-terrorism efforts appear more effective in disrupting religiously motivated plots compared to those driven by ideological motivations. This disparity may stem from pre-existing frameworks and intelligence sharing practices that prioritize religiously motivated terrorism, potentially overlooking or underestimating ideologically driven threats. The focus on international cooperation and intelligence sharing, often prioritizing threats identified by allies, may also contribute to this imbalance. Further research and adjustments to counter-terrorism strategies are necessary to address the evolving nature of the threat landscape and ensure effective disruption of all forms of terrorism.
The Canadian government’s official terrorist threat level has remained at “medium” for over a decade, indicating the persistent potential for attacks. While this assessment might suggest a degree of stability, the underlying data reveals a dynamic and evolving threat landscape. The increasing involvement of young people and minors in terrorism-related cases, as highlighted by the Five Eyes alliance, further complicates the situation. Addressing this challenge requires a comprehensive approach that includes early intervention, community engagement, and addressing the root causes of radicalization. The complexity of the current threat environment demands ongoing vigilance, adaptation, and collaboration among security agencies, both domestically and internationally, to effectively counter the diverse and evolving nature of terrorism in Canada.
