Corbin Burnes, a highly sought-after free-agent starting pitcher, has received a contract offer from the San Francisco Giants, a team eager to bolster their starting rotation. While the Giants and Burnes appear to be a strong match given the team’s need for a top-tier starter and Burnes’ California roots, negotiations have seemingly stalled. The primary sticking point appears to be Burnes’ asking price, reportedly set at a minimum of $245 million, a figure that would match Stephen Strasburg’s 2019 contract, the third-highest guaranteed contract in history for a starting pitcher at the time. Burnes’ agent, Scott Boras, has a history of negotiating record-breaking contracts, including Juan Soto’s historic $440 million deal and two of the three largest pitching contracts ever: Gerrit Cole’s $324 million and the aforementioned Strasburg deal. It’s speculated that the Giants’ initial offer fell short of this benchmark, leading to the current impasse.
The $245 million figure, while matching a previous high-water mark, carries significant risk for the Giants, given Strasburg’s injury-plagued tenure following his mega-deal. After signing the contract, Strasburg made only eight starts before injuries ultimately led to his retirement. This precedent undoubtedly weighs heavily on the Giants’ decision-making process as they assess the potential long-term value of a similarly structured contract for Burnes. While Burnes is a year younger than Strasburg was at the time of his signing, the specter of a similar outcome looms large. The Giants must carefully weigh the potential upside of acquiring a Cy Young Award-winning pitcher against the potential financial burden of a long-term contract for a player who might succumb to injuries.
The Giants’ apparent hesitation to meet Burnes’ asking price has prompted them to explore alternative options to strengthen their rotation. They have reportedly met with Japanese pitching phenom Roki Sasaki, who is poised to make the leap to Major League Baseball. Sasaki, while subject to restrictions on his initial contract due to international signing rules, represents a high-upside, potentially more cost-effective alternative to Burnes. His impressive performance in the Japanese league and his dazzling display at the 2023 World Baseball Classic, where his fastball consistently reached 100 mph, have solidified his status as a highly coveted prospect.
The Giants’ pursuit of Sasaki adds another layer of complexity to the Burnes negotiations. It suggests that the Giants are not solely focused on Burnes and are willing to explore other avenues to address their pitching needs. This could be a strategic move to pressure Burnes and his agent to lower their asking price or a genuine indication that the Giants are prepared to move on if a deal cannot be reached. The timing of Sasaki’s decision, expected no earlier than January 15th, adds a further element of suspense to the situation.
While the Giants weigh their options, Burnes, a 30-year-old right-hander coming off a 15-9 season with a 2.92 ERA, remains a highly desirable free agent. His 2021 Cy Young Award underscores his talent and potential to anchor a rotation. However, his rejection of a qualifying offer from the Baltimore Orioles means that any team signing him, excluding Baltimore, will forfeit a draft pick, adding another factor to the equation. This cost, while not insignificant, is likely less of a concern for teams like the Giants who are prioritizing immediate contention.
The Giants’ pursuit of both Burnes and Sasaki highlights their commitment to improving their starting rotation. Whether they ultimately land Burnes, Sasaki, or another free agent remains to be seen. The ongoing negotiations with Burnes are a high-stakes game of poker, with both sides carefully evaluating their options and assessing the potential risks and rewards. The shadow of Strasburg’s ill-fated contract looms large, serving as a cautionary tale for the Giants while also providing a benchmark for Burnes’ agent. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining the direction of the Giants’ pitching staff and Burnes’ future in Major League Baseball. The Giants’ pursuit of both established talent and rising stars underscores their ambition to compete at the highest level.
