The AFC playoff picture is largely solidified, with only one Wild Card spot remaining. Four teams initially vied for this coveted position, but the Indianapolis Colts were eliminated following a loss to the New York Giants. This leaves the Denver Broncos, Miami Dolphins, and Cincinnati Bengals as the remaining contenders, each facing varying degrees of difficulty in securing their postseason berth.
The Denver Broncos currently hold the most favorable position, boasting a 56% chance of clinching the final Wild Card spot according to NFL.com. Their path to the playoffs is straightforward: defeat the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 18. While the Chiefs represent the top seed in the AFC, the Broncos narrowly lost to them earlier in the season, falling 16-14 due to a blocked field goal. Furthermore, there’s a possibility that Kansas City may rest their starters, increasing Denver’s odds of victory. Even if the Broncos lose, they can still qualify for the playoffs if both the Dolphins and Bengals also lose their respective Week 18 matchups.
The Miami Dolphins kept their postseason hopes alive with a decisive 20-3 victory over the Cleveland Browns. Their chances of reaching the playoffs, currently estimated at 28% by NFL.com, hinge on two factors: a Broncos loss to the Chiefs and a Dolphins victory over the New York Jets. Considering the Jets’ recent 40-14 defeat against the Buffalo Bills, the Dolphins have a reasonable chance of securing the necessary win.
The Cincinnati Bengals face the most challenging path to the playoffs, requiring a confluence of events to unfold in their favor. First, the Broncos must lose to the Chiefs, and the Dolphins must fall to the Jets. Additionally, the Bengals need to defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team that has proven to be a formidable opponent, having defeated Cincinnati 44-38 earlier this season. In fact, the Bengals haven’t triumphed over the Steelers since November 20, 2022. Despite these obstacles, Cincinnati enters Week 18 on a four-game winning streak, fueled by the MVP-caliber performance of quarterback Joe Burrow. However, with only a 15% chance of making the playoffs according to NFL.com, the Bengals’ postseason fate largely rests in the hands of other teams.
The final Wild Card spot essentially boils down to a high-stakes game of chance and performance. The Broncos control their own destiny, needing a win against the Chiefs to secure their playoff berth. The Dolphins must win and hope for a Broncos loss, while the Bengals face the longest odds, requiring both Denver and Miami to stumble, while simultaneously securing a victory against a challenging Steelers squad.
Week 18 promises to be a decisive week, determining which of these three teams will advance to the playoffs. The Broncos’ clash with the Chiefs, the Dolphins’ matchup against the Jets, and the Bengals’ battle with the Steelers will all hold significant implications. Each game presents its own unique set of challenges and opportunities, creating a compelling narrative as the regular season concludes and the playoff field is finalized. The drama surrounding the final Wild Card spot will undoubtedly captivate fans and provide a thrilling conclusion to the NFL’s regular season.
