The Brexit Aftermath: Five Years of Shifting Tides
Five years have passed since the United Kingdom’s momentous departure from the European Union, a decision that continues to reverberate through the nation’s political, economic, and social landscape. The initial jubilation of some and the somber resignation of others on that January day in 2020 have given way to a more nuanced and complex reality. Public opinion, once closely divided, has seemingly shifted, with a growing number of Britons now viewing Brexit as a misstep. The economic impacts, although somewhat obscured by the global disruptions of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, are becoming increasingly apparent, and the promised benefits of "taking back control" have manifested in unexpected ways.
The UK’s exit from the EU was born from a confluence of factors, including decades of deindustrialization, austerity measures, and anxieties surrounding immigration. The 2016 referendum, resulting in a narrow 52% majority for Leave, exposed deep divisions within British society and triggered a period of political turmoil. The ensuing negotiations on the terms of separation proved protracted and acrimonious, ultimately leading to the resignation of Prime Minister Theresa May and the rise of Boris Johnson, who pledged to "get Brexit done." Johnson’s pursuit of a swift departure resulted in a bare-bones trade deal, leaving the UK outside the EU’s single market and customs union.
The economic consequences of this separation are beginning to crystallize. Businesses, large and small, are grappling with new red tape, increased costs, and logistical challenges. While some companies have adapted by establishing EU bases or absorbing the added expenses, others have been forced to cease trading with the bloc altogether. The Office for Budget Responsibility projects a long-term decline in both UK exports and imports, coupled with reduced economic productivity. The pandemic and the war in Ukraine have undoubtedly exacerbated these economic woes, making it difficult to isolate the specific impact of Brexit.
Ironically, one of the driving forces behind Brexit, the desire to curb immigration, has yielded an opposite outcome. While the free movement of people from within the EU has ended, immigration to the UK has actually increased, driven by a surge in visas granted to workers from outside the bloc. This unintended consequence highlights the complex interplay of economic forces and migration patterns. The promise of "taking back control" has, in this instance, resulted in a different kind of movement, one that was not necessarily anticipated or desired by many Brexit proponents.
The global political landscape has also undergone significant shifts since the 2016 referendum. The rise of protectionist sentiments and the election of Donald Trump in the US, albeit temporarily, created new challenges for the UK, caught between its European neighbors and its transatlantic ally. The world has become a "less forgiving place," as political scientist Anand Menon observes, increasing the complexities of navigating international relations. Brexit, initially framed as a path to greater sovereignty and control, has coincided with a period of heightened global uncertainty.
Five years on, public sentiment appears to be turning against Brexit. Polls suggest a growing majority of Britons now believe leaving the EU was a mistake. However, despite this shift in opinion, the prospect of rejoining the bloc remains a distant one. The scars of the divisive referendum remain fresh, and few are eager to reopen the debate. The newly elected Labour Party leader, Keir Starmer, has adopted a more conciliatory approach towards the EU, seeking to "reset" relations and focus on practical areas of cooperation, such as trade facilitation and security. While the EU has welcomed this change in tone, the UK’s departure has undeniably diminished its standing within the bloc, particularly as the EU itself grapples with internal challenges and a rise in populist movements across the continent.
