The European Union is embarking on a complex and delicate process of re-engaging with Syria following the downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. A recently circulated non-paper, an informal document used for internal EU discussions, outlines the preliminary groundwork for a potential, wide-ranging lifting of sanctions. This shift in policy reflects the EU’s evolving geopolitical strategy towards a Syria under new leadership, specifically Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group with a complex and concerning past. The document emphasizes that any sanctions relief would be contingent on a careful assessment of the situation on the ground and the behavior of the new regime. It highlights the need to prevent Syria from becoming a haven for terrorist groups and stresses that any easing of restrictions would not benefit Assad or his associates, who would remain subject to sanctions.
The proposed lifting of sanctions encompasses a broad spectrum of sectors, aiming to revitalize Syria’s economy and facilitate its reintegration into the international community. Key areas targeted for sanctions relief include transportation, particularly the resumption of civilian flights between the EU and Syria, enabling airlines like Syrian Arab Airlines to operate freely. The energy sector is also a focal point, with proposals to remove export bans on oil and gas technology and encourage EU participation in infrastructure projects and financing. This move aims to bolster Syria’s energy production and rebuild its damaged infrastructure. Furthermore, the EU is considering lifting restrictions on high-value commercial assets, like vehicles, to facilitate business relocation and investment within Syria.
The financial sector is another critical area for potential sanctions relief. The EU recognizes the need to reopen financial channels between the EU and Syria, including re-establishing banking relationships between Syrian and EU banks. This measure aims to facilitate trade, investment, and humanitarian aid, crucial for Syria’s economic recovery and stability. However, the document emphasizes the importance of safeguards to prevent terrorism financing and ensure responsible financial practices.
Despite the potential for renewed engagement, the EU’s approach is cautious and conditional. The non-paper underscores the necessity of a thorough assessment of HTS, its leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani (formerly known as Al-Shara’a), and the evolving situation in Syria. Any delisting of HTS as a terrorist group, a key demand for normalization of relations, would require a decision at the UN Security Council level before being implemented by the EU. This reflects the international community’s concerns regarding HTS’s past links to Al-Qaeda and the potential for resurgence of extremist activities.
The EU’s cautious approach is further emphasized by the conditionality attached to any sanctions relief. The document stresses that any delisting of HTS must be accompanied by demonstrable changes on the ground, including a commitment to combating terrorism and preventing Syria from becoming a safe haven for foreign fighters. This reflects the EU’s commitment to ensuring that any re-engagement with Syria does not inadvertently contribute to the resurgence of terrorism.
The non-paper also highlights the EU’s determination to hold Assad and his associates accountable for past atrocities. Despite the potential thawing of relations with the new regime, the document explicitly states that Assad and his affiliates will remain subject to sanctions. This serves as a reminder of the EU’s commitment to justice and accountability for human rights violations committed during the Syrian conflict. The EU’s approach to re-engaging with Syria is therefore a complex balancing act, aiming to support the Syrian people while mitigating the risks of terrorism and ensuring accountability for past crimes. The upcoming meeting of EU foreign affairs ministers is expected to be a crucial forum for discussing and potentially agreeing on these proposals, shaping the future of EU-Syria relations.
