The European Union’s enlargement policy, once hailed as a cornerstone of its foreign policy success, has experienced a period of stagnation since its largest expansion in 2004. The recent war in Ukraine, however, has reinvigorated discussions about the urgency of expanding the EU’s membership, bringing the often-delayed accession process back into the spotlight. While the prospect of Ukrainian membership has injected new momentum, the path to accession remains complex, with some candidate countries having waited for over a decade. A key debate centers on balancing the desire for expansion with the need to uphold the EU’s core principles, particularly the rule of law.
The EU’s enlargement process faces a critical juncture, grappling with both the geopolitical implications of expanding its membership and internal concerns about maintaining its integrity. The 2004 enlargement, which saw ten new countries join the bloc, followed by Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia in 2007 and 2013 respectively, marked a significant shift in the EU’s focus. The emphasis shifted from rapid expansion towards consolidating the existing union and strengthening its internal structures. Concerns arose about the rule of law within some member states, raising apprehension about admitting new members who might not fully adhere to these fundamental principles. This cautious approach reflects a desire to protect the EU’s legal and political framework and ensure the long-term stability of the union.
The invasion of Ukraine has dramatically altered the geopolitical landscape, adding a new layer of complexity to the enlargement debate. Ukraine’s application for membership, fast-tracked in response to the war, has highlighted the strategic importance of integrating countries bordering Russia. However, this accelerated timeline has also sparked concerns about potential inequalities in the accession process and the need to maintain consistent standards for all candidate countries. The ongoing war necessitates a careful balancing act: supporting Ukraine’s aspirations while ensuring a fair and rigorous accession process for all.
Experiences of previous member states offer valuable insights into the challenges and benefits of EU accession. Croatia, which joined the EU in 2013, exemplifies the transformative potential of membership. Despite the lengthy accession process, the rigorous scrutiny ultimately proved beneficial, leading to significant economic development, infrastructure improvements, and strengthened adherence to the rule of law. This success story underscores the importance of maintaining high standards for accession, even if it means a longer timeline, as the long-term benefits outweigh the initial challenges. Croatia’s experience serves as a compelling argument for the transformative power of EU membership, demonstrating the potential for positive change in candidate countries.
Montenegro, considered the frontrunner among the current candidate countries, aims to complete accession negotiations by 2026 and become the 28th member state in 2028. Despite Ukraine’s expedited candidacy, Montenegro views this development positively, emphasizing the cooperative nature of the accession process rather than a competitive one. This sentiment underscores the shared goal of strengthening the EU through enlargement, with each candidate country contributing its unique strengths and experiences. Montenegro’s optimistic outlook reflects a broader recognition of the mutual benefits of EU expansion, both for the candidate countries and the existing members.
Ukraine’s bid for membership carries significant strategic and symbolic weight. Beyond seeking refuge from Russian aggression, Ukraine aims to contribute to the EU’s collective strength, leveraging its experience in defense, technology, and its resilience in the face of conflict. The estimated economic cost of enlargement, while substantial, is framed as a worthwhile investment in the EU’s long-term security and stability. Ukraine’s accession would represent a major geopolitical shift, reinforcing the EU’s eastern border and solidifying its commitment to democratic values in the region. The potential benefits of integrating Ukraine, both economically and strategically, underscore the importance of carefully considering this application within the broader context of European security and stability.
Looking ahead, 2025 emerges as a crucial year for the enlargement process, with high expectations for both Montenegro and Ukraine to make significant progress in their respective accession journeys. The upcoming EU Council presidencies of Poland and Denmark, known for their supportive stance on enlargement, are seen as opportunities to further advance the process. The renewed focus on enlargement, driven by the geopolitical realities of the war in Ukraine, represents a significant shift in the EU’s priorities. Successfully navigating this challenging period will require a balanced approach that upholds the EU’s core values while embracing the strategic opportunities of expanding its membership.
