The Iraqi government, sensing a shift in regional power dynamics with waning Iranian influence, is embarking on a significant effort to consolidate its control over armed groups operating within its borders. This initiative aims to integrate these factions, including elements of the Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), into the official state security apparatus or the state-sanctioned Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). This move is driven by a desire to assert national sovereignty and curb the unchecked power of these groups, many of which are aligned with Iran and have been involved in attacks against US and Israeli interests. Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein has underscored the government’s determination to bring these groups under state control, highlighting the growing consensus among Iraqi political leaders on this issue.
This push for consolidation comes amid regional instability and concerns about the potential domino effect of state collapse. The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, coupled with the weakened state of Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, has raised anxieties about Iraq’s vulnerability to similar upheaval. Experts suggest that the Assad regime’s collapse served as a catalyst for the Iraqi government to take decisive action against Iranian-backed militias. While acknowledging these regional anxieties, Foreign Minister Hussein has expressed confidence in Iraq’s resilience. The central challenge facing the Iraqi government lies in effectively managing the IRI factions, known for their staunch allegiance to Iran and their history of armed operations.
The IRI, an umbrella organization comprising various armed factions, poses a complex challenge for the Iraqi government. Their direct involvement in attacks against US forces, including a deadly drone strike that killed American service members in Jordan, underscores the security threat they represent. The government’s efforts to integrate these factions into the official security structure are complicated by the IRI’s deep-rooted ties to Iran and their ideological commitment to the broader “Axis of Resistance,” a network of Iranian-backed groups across the region.
In contrast to the IRI, the PMF represents a more integrated force within the Iraqi security landscape. Formed in 2014 to combat the rise of ISIS, the PMF enjoys official recognition as part of the state security forces and reports directly to the prime minister. However, the PMF also presents its own set of challenges. Many of the IRI factions have established brigades within the PMF, creating a complex web of affiliations and potentially undermining the PMF’s cohesion and loyalty to the Iraqi state. The government faces the intricate task of neutralizing the most problematic elements within the PMF while avoiding further escalation of regional tensions.
The timing of Iraq’s effort to rein in these armed groups coincides with a perceived weakening of Iranian influence in the region. Analysts see this as an opportunity for moderate forces within Iraq and their international partners to capitalize on Iran’s diminished standing. This move is seen as a crucial step toward strengthening Iraqi sovereignty and stabilizing the country. The success of this initiative hinges on the government’s ability to navigate the complex interplay of internal and external forces.
With upcoming elections looming, Prime Minister Sudani faces a critical juncture. He must not only manage the integration of armed groups but also negotiate the future of security cooperation with the United States, including the presence of US troops in Iraq. The ability of the Iraqi government to demonstrate its commitment to controlling rogue actors and maintaining internal security will be a key determinant in its ability to secure continued US support, particularly under a new presidential administration. Failure to effectively address these challenges could jeopardize vital security partnerships and undermine Iraq’s efforts to establish itself as a stable and sovereign nation in a turbulent region.
