The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, brokered after 15 months of devastating conflict, has been marred by political upheaval within Israel and a delayed implementation. The agreement, facilitated by the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar, outlines a multi-phase process beginning with a six-week truce, the return of a portion of the 98 hostages held by Hamas, and the reciprocal release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli custody. This initial phase also stipulates the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza’s main population centers to allow residents to return and facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid. However, the deal has faced significant opposition from Israel’s far-right, culminating in the resignation of Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and other members of his Otzma Yehudit party. Ben-Gvir denounced the agreement as a “surrender deal” and a “complete victory for terrorism,” highlighting the deep divisions within Israeli society regarding the terms of the ceasefire. The future of the coalition government and the subsequent phases of the deal remain uncertain.
The conflict, ignited by Hamas’s unprecedented attack on Israel in October 2023, has claimed a staggering number of lives. Over 1,200 Israelis were killed and more than 250 taken hostage by Hamas, while Hamas-run health authorities in Gaza report over 46,000 deaths resulting from Israeli operations. This figure does not differentiate between civilian and combatant casualties, further underscoring the devastating human cost of the prolonged conflict. Israel’s response to the initial attack involved a heavy bombardment campaign and extensive ground operations in Gaza, aimed at eradicating Hamas. The ceasefire agreement aims to halt this cycle of violence, but the deep-seated animosity and political complexities surrounding the conflict present significant challenges to its long-term success.
The details of the second and third phases of the ceasefire agreement are yet to be determined, adding further uncertainty to the already precarious situation. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while acknowledging the pressure to secure the release of all hostages, has warned of a potential resumption of hostilities with “new ways and great force” if necessary. This statement reflects the delicate balance the Israeli government must strike between public demands for the return of hostages and the complex political and security considerations involved in negotiating with Hamas, an organization designated as a terrorist group by the U.S. and other nations. The resignation of Ben-Gvir and his party members further complicates the political landscape and raises questions about the stability of the coalition government moving forward.
The implementation of the ceasefire was delayed by several hours due to a disagreement concerning the release of the initial group of hostages. Hamas, according to the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), initially failed to provide the names of the three female hostages scheduled for release on Sunday, a condition precedent to the ceasefire taking effect. This led to further exchanges between the two sides, highlighting the fragile nature of the agreement and the deep mistrust that exists. Following the eventual confirmation of the hostages’ identities by Hamas, through Qatari mediation, the ceasefire finally came into effect, albeit several hours later than planned. The initial release includes Romi Gonen, Doron Steinbrecher, and Emily Damari.
Even as the ceasefire was being negotiated and finalized, the IDF reported carrying out strikes in northern and central Gaza, using artillery and fighter jets. The military also announced a “covert, special operation” to recover the body of an Israeli soldier killed in 2014 and held by Hamas. Palestinian sources reported casualties from these strikes, further illustrating the volatile nature of the situation on the ground. These actions underscore the continuing tensions and the potential for rapid escalation even amidst efforts to secure a peaceful resolution. The ongoing violence and mutual distrust between the two sides emphasize the fragility of the ceasefire and the significant challenges that lie ahead in achieving a lasting peace.
The resignation of Ben-Gvir and his party, coupled with the delayed implementation and ongoing military activity, casts a long shadow over the future of the ceasefire. Ben-Gvir’s strong condemnation of the agreement and his vow not to return to the government without a “complete victory against Hamas” signal a significant political challenge for Netanyahu. The fragility of the coalition government, the internal political pressures, and the deep divisions within Israeli society regarding the terms of the ceasefire all contribute to a highly volatile and uncertain future. Whether the current ceasefire holds and paves the way for a more enduring peace remains to be seen. The complex dynamics at play, both internally within Israel and in the broader regional context, suggest that the path to a lasting resolution will be fraught with challenges and setbacks.
