The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime after nearly 14 years of brutal civil war has ushered in a new era of uncertainty for Syria, marked by the ascendance of the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani. While the ousting of Assad is celebrated by opposition forces, the future under HTS raises serious concerns, particularly given the group’s evolution from its origins as the Nusra Front, an Al-Qaeda affiliate. Golani, who has publicly renounced ties with Al-Qaeda, faces the daunting task of consolidating power while assuaging fears about his commitment to building an inclusive and prosperous Syria. The international community remains wary, questioning whether HTS will genuinely abandon its extremist past or impose a new form of authoritarianism on the war-torn nation. The existing power vacuum creates fertile ground for further conflict and exacerbates pre-existing tensions.
The post-Assad landscape is further complicated by the emergence of new fault lines, particularly between HTS and the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led group controlling a significant portion of northern and eastern Syria. The Syrian National Army, backed by Turkey, views the SDF as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Turkey considers a terrorist organization. This sets the stage for potential clashes between these factions, with the city of Kobani, a symbol of resistance against ISIS, emerging as a potential flashpoint. The SDF, wary of HTS’s intentions and its perceived “individualistic” approach to governance, fears a new form of power monopoly that excludes other Syrian political and social actors. This complex interplay of competing interests threatens to ignite further violence and undermine the prospects for a stable and unified Syria.
Adding to the volatility is Israel’s increased military activity in the Golan Heights, exploiting the power vacuum to expand its control over the disputed territory. While Golani has expressed a desire to avoid conflict with Israel, his military chief has condemned the Israeli incursion. This delicate balance underscores the precarious situation and the potential for escalation should tensions between HTS and Israel flare. The international community, through the United Nations, has criticized Israel’s actions as a violation of the ceasefire agreement, highlighting the potential for further destabilization. The deployment of additional peacekeeping forces to the Golan Heights has been hampered by the ongoing Israeli operations, underscoring the limitations of international intervention in this complex environment.
The rapid shift in power in Syria presents a significant foreign policy challenge for the United States. The Biden administration, while acknowledging the concerns of both Turkey and Israel, is navigating a complex web of relationships with actors it deems to be both allies and adversaries. The U.S. has relied on the SDF as a key partner in the fight against ISIS while simultaneously designating both HTS and the PKK as terrorist organizations. The administration’s ongoing contact with HTS, despite its terrorist designation, illustrates the pragmatic approach being taken to address the evolving situation on the ground. The potential for a review of HTS’s designation remains unclear, reflecting the complexities of U.S. counterterrorism policy in a rapidly changing geopolitical context.
Further complicating the situation is the presence of the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP), a Uyghur group within the anti-Assad coalition, which raises concerns about the spillover of regional conflicts into Syria. TIP’s association with the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), a group seeking an independent state in China’s Xinjiang province, adds another layer of international intrigue. China’s condemnation of TIP and its concerns about the group’s presence in Syria highlights the potential for the Syrian conflict to become a battleground for broader geopolitical rivalries. China’s call for international cooperation against terrorism underscores the potential for the Syrian conflict to draw in other global powers and further complicate the already volatile situation.
The evolving dynamics in Syria have also created uncertainty for Assad’s traditional allies, Iran and Russia. While expressing concern about the potential impact on their regional influence, both countries have signaled a willingness to engage with the new leadership, suggesting a pragmatic approach to safeguarding their interests. Turkey’s role, as President-elect Trump has emphasized, remains crucial. Trump’s previous decision to withdraw U.S. troops from northern Syria and his amicable relationship with Turkish President Erdogan suggest a potential shift in U.S. policy in the region. The appointment of Tulsi Gabbard, a proponent of U.S. military withdrawal from Syria, as national intelligence chief further reinforces this potential trajectory. The convergence of these factors creates a fluid and unpredictable environment, underscoring the challenges ahead for Syria and the international community as they grapple with the ramifications of Assad’s downfall and the uncertain future that lies ahead.
