Walker Buehler, the Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher, experienced a rollercoaster 2024 season. His regular season performance was underwhelming, marked by a 5.38 ERA and six losses in 16 starts. This subpar performance, especially considering the Dodgers’ strong lineup, raised questions about his future with the team, particularly as he was recovering from another arm injury. However, Buehler’s postseason performance was a stark contrast to his regular season struggles. In his final ten innings, spanning three appearances including two crucial World Series games, he was lights out, allowing no runs, five hits, and only four walks. This late-season resurgence played a significant role in the Dodgers’ World Series victory and dramatically altered Buehler’s free agency prospects, potentially setting him up for a lucrative contract. Despite his crucial contributions to the championship run, a return to the Dodgers seems unlikely.
The New York Mets emerge as a likely landing spot for Buehler. The Mets have established a pattern of successfully rehabilitating struggling pitchers, as evidenced by their work with Sean Manaea and Luis Severino in 2024. Their current rotation construction suggests a continued interest in this strategy, making Buehler a prime candidate for their next reclamation project. A potential three-year, $45 million contract with an opt-out after 2026 appears to be a fitting proposal. This deal would provide Buehler with financial security while allowing him to re-enter the free agent market sooner if he rediscovers his peak form. The Mets, in turn, would acquire a pitcher with significant upside potential at a reasonable price.
The Mets’ gamble on Buehler carries both substantial risk and reward. If he returns to his pre-injury form, the Mets would gain a potential Cy Young contender, making the $15 million annual salary a bargain. Even if he replicates his postseason performance, it would represent a valuable addition to their rotation. However, the risk lies in the possibility that his regular season struggles persist. If Buehler’s arm issues continue to hinder him, the Mets could be saddled with a costly and ineffective contract.
Buehler’s decision will be influenced by various factors, including the financial terms offered by interested teams, the opportunity for a starting role, and the team’s overall competitiveness. The Mets, with their history of pitcher rehabilitation and a potential need for a front-line starter, present a compelling case. Other teams, however, may also be vying for his services, recognizing the potential for a high-reward signing.
The Dodgers, despite benefiting from Buehler’s postseason heroics, are unlikely to retain him. Their deep pockets and competitive roster often attract top-tier free agents, but their willingness to let go of Buehler suggests they may be hesitant to invest heavily in a pitcher with an uncertain future. This decision could stem from concerns about his injury history and inconsistent performance, or simply a strategic shift in their pitching plans. The reported interest in a $71 million free agent further indicates the Dodgers’ willingness to explore other options.
Buehler’s 2024 season served as a microcosm of his career: flashes of brilliance interspersed with periods of inconsistency and injury setbacks. The upcoming free agency period presents a crucial juncture in his career. The decision he makes will significantly impact his future trajectory and the fortunes of the team that signs him. The Mets, with their proven track record of revitalizing pitching careers, appear to be the frontrunners, but other suitors may emerge, adding further intrigue to Buehler’s free agency saga.
