The collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria has created a power vacuum, sparking concerns about a resurgence of the Islamic State (ISIS) and escalating tensions between U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkey-backed factions. The SDF, instrumental in the fight against ISIS, now faces a two-front conflict, battling both the extremist group and Turkish-backed forces. Recent attacks by these forces have killed SDF soldiers, jeopardizing the fragile ceasefire brokered by the Biden administration and highlighting the complex interplay of alliances and rivalries in the region. The incoming Trump administration inherits this volatile situation, requiring a delicate balancing act to prevent an ISIS resurgence while managing the crucial yet strained relationship with Turkey, a NATO ally.
The threat of ISIS regaining strength is amplified by the unstable political landscape in Syria. The fall of the Assad regime has left ungoverned spaces that ISIS, opportunistic by nature, can exploit. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has voiced concerns about this very scenario, emphasizing the need to support the SDF, primarily Kurdish forces, to keep ISIS in check. This, however, creates a dilemma for the U.S. as Turkey views the SDF as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which it designates as a terrorist organization. This complicated dynamic requires the U.S. to navigate its alliance with Turkey while simultaneously supporting the SDF, a crucial partner in the fight against ISIS.
Experts, like Bill Roggio of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, underscore the importance of both the Assad regime and the SDF in countering ISIS. With the regime’s demise and the SDF facing pressure from Turkish proxies, the risk of ISIS expansion is real. Turkey’s animosity towards the SDF creates an opportunity for it to weaken the Kurdish forces, a situation that may further destabilize the region and create further opportunities for ISIS resurgence. This escalating conflict diverts the SDF’s resources and attention, potentially hindering their effectiveness against ISIS.
The Biden administration, recognizing the growing ISIS threat, has intensified its campaign against the extremist group, conducting airstrikes targeting ISIS leaders, operatives, and camps. The killing of a senior ISIS leader further demonstrates the U.S. commitment to combating the group. However, these efforts might be hampered if the SDF is forced to prioritize defending itself against Turkish-backed forces. The SDF’s recent operation against ISIS near Raqqa, a former ISIS stronghold, highlights its continued commitment to counterterrorism efforts, but the long-term success hinges on its ability to focus on ISIS without the constant threat from Turkish-backed forces.
The convergence of these events creates a challenging scenario for the incoming Trump administration. The fall of Damascus to Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), supported by Turkey-backed forces, further complicates the situation. This shift in power dynamics, coupled with reports of ISIS seizing weapons depots abandoned by the Syrian military, adds another layer of complexity to an already volatile environment. The Trump administration must address these interwoven challenges – the potential resurgence of ISIS, the escalating conflict between the SDF and Turkey-backed forces, and the changing political landscape in Syria – while maintaining its relationship with Turkey.
The Trump administration faces the difficult task of developing a coherent Syria policy that addresses these interconnected challenges. It will need to find ways to support the SDF in its fight against ISIS while simultaneously managing its relationship with Turkey. Failure to strike this delicate balance risks further destabilizing the region, paving the way for an ISIS resurgence, and potentially jeopardizing U.S. national security interests. The administration’s response will require careful consideration of the complex interplay of actors and interests in the region, and a commitment to prioritizing stability and security in a volatile environment.
