Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has expressed optimism regarding his political future in light of Donald Trump’s impending return to the White House. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Bolsonaro suggested that Trump’s election victory could indirectly support his own ambitions for a comeback. Specifically, he believes that Trump might exert pressure on Brazil through potential sanctions, which could delay the enforcement of a court ruling prohibiting him from holding office until 2030. This ruling stems from Bolsonaro’s repeated unfounded claims about electoral fraud prior to the 2022 elections, which he ultimately lost to left-wing candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
In recent developments, Brazilian authorities have implicated Bolsonaro in an alleged criminal conspiracy aimed at overturning the 2022 election results. The police report accused him of being directly involved in planning and executing actions against the democratic process. Bolsonaro, however, has denied any wrongdoing, framing the investigations against him as politically motivated attacks. His statements reflect a common narrative among his followers, which portrays him as a victim of a witch-hunt orchestrated by those in power. This defense aligns with similar tactics Trump has employed regarding his own electoral controversies.
Despite the serious allegations surrounding him, Bolsonaro finds renewed hope among Brazil’s far-right following Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections. During his presidency, Bolsonaro often admired Trump and was even referred to as the “Trump of the Tropics.” The two leaders share similar rhetoric, particularly regarding false claims of electoral fraud; Bolsonaro questioned the integrity of Brazil’s voting system leading up to his defeat in 2022. After Lula assumed the presidency, thousands of discontent Bolsonaro supporters stormed key government buildings in Brasilia—an event reminiscent of Trump’s supporters’ actions during the January 6 Capitol riot in 2021.
Political analysts, like Guilherme Casaroes from the Sao Paulo School of Business Administration, observe that Bolsonaro’s supporters are hopeful that Trump’s influence could facilitate a political pathway for Bolsonaro to run in the upcoming 2026 elections. They speculate that a U.S. threat of sanctions may put pressure on Brazilian authorities to reconsider Bolsonaro’s legal standing, even if such measures do not directly alter judicial decisions. The potential expression of sympathy for Bolsonaro from the international community could bolster his political capital back home, fueling a narrative of grievance and galvanizing support for his return.
The political climate in Brazil remains charged, with stark divisions between Bolsonaro’s supporters and the current left-led government of Lula. Bolsonaro’s brand of populism and far-right ideology continues to resonate with a significant segment of the Brazilian population, and his ongoing relationship with Trump is seen as a source of inspiration. The wave of discontent stemming from Lula’s administration might provide Bolsonaro with an opportunity to rally his base and mobilize support for a future presidential campaign.
As Bolsonaro navigates these investigations and potential political outcomes, his focus on aligning himself with Trump could be pivotal in redefining his image and political platform. While the implications of the U.S. elections may not directly dictate Brazilian politics, Bolsonaro’s reliance on the belief in a shared narrative of wrongful persecution may solidify his standing among conservative voters. Ultimately, the dynamics of bolstering this international connection could play a crucial role in shaping the political landscape in Brazil ahead of future elections.
