The Syrian conflict witnessed a dramatic escalation in late November 2017 as insurgents, spearheaded by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, launched a lightning offensive that swiftly reshaped the balance of power. The rebels achieved stunning victories, capturing key cities including Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, and Hama, the fourth-largest, before advancing towards the outskirts of the capital, Damascus, a feat not accomplished since 2018. This rapid territorial gain marked a significant turning point in the protracted civil war, posing the most serious threat to President Bashar al-Assad’s rule since the conflict’s inception. The government’s loss of control over Homs, a strategically important city linking Damascus to Assad’s coastal strongholds and a Russian naval base, dealt a particularly crippling blow. The rebels’ advance left the government in control of only three out of fourteen provincial capitals: Damascus, Latakia, and Tartus, underscoring the precariousness of Assad’s position.
The insurgents’ swift progress was met with little resistance from the Syrian army, a testament to the government’s weakened state and the rebels’ emboldened strategy. The lack of support from Assad’s traditional allies further compounded the regime’s vulnerability. Russia, Assad’s principal backer, was preoccupied with its war in Ukraine, limiting its ability to intervene effectively in Syria. Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shiite militia that had previously bolstered Assad’s forces, was weakened by ongoing conflict with Israel. Similarly, Iran, another key ally, faced challenges due to its proxies being targeted by Israeli airstrikes. This confluence of factors created a power vacuum that the rebels exploited to their advantage, rapidly expanding their territorial control and bringing the war to the doorstep of the capital.
The rapid deterioration of the situation prompted international concern and calls for urgent action. Geir Pedersen, the UN special envoy for Syria, urged for immediate talks in Geneva to facilitate an “orderly political transition” and implement a 2015 UN resolution calling for a Syrian-led political process. This resolution envisioned the establishment of a transitional governing body, the drafting of a new constitution, and UN-supervised elections. The urgency of the situation was further emphasized by the convening of foreign ministers and senior diplomats from key countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Egypt, Turkey, and Iran, on the sidelines of the Doha Summit. They reaffirmed their support for a political solution to the Syrian crisis, emphasizing the need to end military activity and protect civilians, while also committing to increasing humanitarian aid to the Syrian people.
The advance of the insurgents, particularly HTS, marked a new phase in the Syrian conflict. HTS, despite its origins in al-Qaeda and its designation as a terrorist organization by the US and UN, had been attempting to rebrand itself. Its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, sought to distance the group from its extremist past by severing ties with al-Qaeda, removing hard-line officials, and promoting a narrative of pluralism and religious tolerance. This strategic shift aimed to gain broader acceptance and legitimacy, potentially paving the way for a more prominent role in a post-conflict Syria. The dramatic advances achieved by HTS and other rebel groups during the offensive greatly amplified their influence and underscored the need to address their role in any future political settlement.
The unfolding events in Syria triggered a complex array of reactions from international actors. While President-elect Donald Trump advocated for US non-intervention in Syria, blaming the Obama administration for the perceived failure of US policy, President Joe Biden’s administration affirmed its intention to avoid military involvement. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed sympathy for the Syrian people but stopped short of signaling increased support for the Assad regime. Meanwhile, Qatar’s top diplomat, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, criticized Assad for failing to capitalize on previous lulls in fighting to address the underlying causes of the conflict and initiate reconciliation with the Syrian people. He warned of the potential for further destruction if urgent action was not taken to initiate a political process.
Inside Syria, the escalating conflict sparked fear and uncertainty. Rumors of President Assad fleeing the country, though denied by state media, circulated widely, reflecting the widespread anxiety. Residents of Damascus rushed to stock up on supplies, anticipating potential shortages and disruptions. Many shops were shuttered, and prices of essential goods soared as people prepared for the possibility of the war reaching the capital. The UN, as a precautionary measure, relocated non-critical staff out of the country, highlighting the growing security concerns. The sudden shift in the conflict’s trajectory, with the rebels reaching the outskirts of Damascus for the first time since 2018, created a palpable sense of apprehension and uncertainty about the future.
