Ukraine’s escalating drone warfare against Russia reached a new milestone on December 26, 2024, with the confirmed destruction of a fortified military facility in Russia’s Oryol region. This facility, situated approximately 200 miles southwest of Moscow and 130 miles from the Ukrainian border, was reportedly used by Russia to prepare Iranian-designed Shahed “kamikaze” drones for deployment against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. This attack, confirmed by the Ukrainian General Staff, represents a significant escalation in Kyiv’s strategy of targeting key Russian military assets within Russian territory, disrupting Moscow’s war effort and its ability to launch drone attacks on Ukraine. The type of weapon used in the strike was not disclosed by Ukrainian authorities.
The Oryol region has become a recurring target for Ukrainian strikes. Just days before this attack on the drone facility, another strike hit a fuel facility in the region on December 22. Earlier in the month, on December 14, the Stalnoy Kon oil terminal, a key supplier to the Russian military, was also targeted, resulting in a substantial fire. These repeated strikes underscore Ukraine’s increasing capability and willingness to project force deep inside Russian territory, targeting vital logistical and military infrastructure that supports Russia’s ongoing war effort. This evolving strategy reflects a shift in the dynamics of the conflict, with Ukraine moving beyond defensive measures and actively disrupting Russia’s military capabilities within its own borders.
This recent strike on the drone facility in Oryol follows other successful attacks against similar targets within Russia. Notably, on December 23, a purported Shahed-136 drone warehouse within Russia’s Alabuga Special Economic Zone, located approximately 800 miles from the Ukrainian border, was engulfed in flames, reportedly destroying $16 million worth of drone components. These targeted strikes demonstrate Ukraine’s focused effort to degrade Russia’s drone warfare capabilities, which have been instrumental in targeting Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. By disrupting the supply and preparation of these drones, Ukraine aims to mitigate the threat they pose to its civilian population and critical infrastructure.
The Ukrainian military’s increasingly assertive posture coincides with the United States’ decision to lift restrictions on the use of longer-range weapons by Ukraine, including the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). This shift in U.S. policy has emboldened Ukraine to strike deeper into Russian territory, targeting critical military infrastructure and disrupting Russia’s logistical network. The ability to strike targets deep within Russia allows Ukraine to disrupt the flow of supplies and reinforcements to the front lines, potentially impacting Russia’s ability to sustain its military operations. This strategic shift underscores the evolving nature of the conflict and the growing support from international partners for Ukraine’s efforts to defend its territory.
Beyond the Oryol strike, Ukrainian drone activity continued across several Russian regions. Russian authorities reported attacks in Voronezh, Rostov, and Belgorod, claiming to have downed 56 drones. Furthermore, a drone attack forced the temporary closure of the airport in Kazan, located in the Tatarstan republic. These widespread drone attacks demonstrate Ukraine’s expanding capabilities to conduct coordinated operations across multiple fronts, stretching Russian air defenses and demonstrating the vulnerability of Russian territory to aerial attacks. This increased drone activity further complicates Russia’s defensive efforts and potentially diverts resources away from other areas of operation.
Ukraine’s commitment to targeting Russian military assets within its borders was reaffirmed by the General Staff, stating that efforts to identify and neutralize such targets will continue. This ongoing strategy suggests a sustained campaign aimed at disrupting Russia’s war machine and degrading its ability to wage war against Ukraine. Furthermore, Ukraine’s own domestic drone production is rapidly advancing, with claims of developing drones capable of striking targets over 1,200 miles away, potentially reaching as far as 2,000 kilometers. This development of long-range drones, including the unveiled “missile-drones” Palianytsia and Peklo, provides Ukraine with an increasingly potent asymmetric warfare capability, allowing it to project force deep into Russian territory and strike strategically important targets.
